India’s Agriculture Landscape: Northeast Monsoon Ends, Rabi Crops Progress, and Key Trends to Watch

Monsoon Withdrawal and Its Impact on Indian Agriculture

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced the withdrawal of the northeast monsoon on Monday, over 10 days later than its usual schedule. This delay underscores the shifting climatic patterns that have a direct impact on agricultural planning and productivity.

According to IMD scientist B. Geetha, the northeast monsoon typically withdraws by January 15, with a standard deviation of 14-15 days. However, this year, it extended well beyond its norm, affecting regions like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Puducherry.

Though rainfall has ceased over Indian regions, the northeast monsoon continues to influence weather patterns in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia.

Western Disturbances and Weather Projections

India's weather dynamics remain active with two western disturbances poised to impact the western Himalayan region:

• First Western Disturbance: Expected to bring rainfall or snowfall from Wednesday.

• Second Western Disturbance: Likely to affect the region from Saturday, extending wet weather conditions through the weekend.

Additionally, an easterly wave is projected to cause heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal from Thursday to Saturday, with isolated rainfall in Kerala and Mahe on Friday. These systems could temporarily disrupt agricultural activities in affected areas.

Rabi Crops: Progress and Projections

The delayed monsoon withdrawal coincides with significant progress in Rabi crop sowing across India, particularly in Andhra Pradesh. As per the state’s agriculture department:

1. Sowing Progress:

   • Total Rabi crop sowing reached 1.5 million hectares as of last Wednesday, an 18.1% increase compared to the previous year.

   • The state has achieved 65.4% of its sowing target for the ongoing season, set at 2.3 million hectares.

2. Key Crop Trends:

   • Pulses:

     • Total area under pulses grew to 666,000 hectares (up from 550,000 hectares last year).

     • Chana acreage increased by 4.7% to 290,000 hectares.

     • Black gram acreage rose significantly to 239,000 hectares from 192,000 hectares.

   • Paddy:

     • Rabi paddy acreage surged to 485,000 hectares, up from 398,000 hectares in the previous year.

     • Paddy is currently in the transplantation stage.

   • Maize:

     • Maize sowing expanded to 138,000 hectares (up from 104,000 hectares).

   • Oilseeds:

     • Total area under oilseeds declined to 51,000 hectares, compared to 72,000 hectares last year.

     • Groundnut sowing fell to 42,000 hectares from 55,000 hectares.

   • Tobacco:

     • Tobacco acreage saw significant growth, reaching 101,000 hectares (up from 72,000 hectares).

3. Crop Stages:

   • Vegetative Stage: Jowar, maize, groundnut, and tobacco.

   • Pod Development to Harvesting: Chana and horse gram.

   • Pod Maturity to Harvesting: Kharif crops like tur.

   • Harvesting: Sugarcane.

Reservoir Levels and Irrigation Outlook

Water availability in reservoirs plays a crucial role in Rabi crop success. As of Friday, reservoir levels in Andhra Pradesh stood at 66.4% of live storage capacity, a significant improvement from 31.3% in the previous year. Adequate water levels provide confidence for irrigation-dependent crops, particularly in areas facing erratic rainfall.

Key Insights for Commodities and Agriculture

The northeast monsoon's delayed withdrawal, coupled with active western disturbances, has set the stage for a dynamic agricultural season. Here’s what to watch for:

1. Pulses Dominate Rabi Acreage:

   • The increase in chana and black gram sowing reflects growing demand for pulses, supported by favorable weather and water availability.

2. Shift in Oilseed Cultivation:

   • The decline in groundnut acreage raises questions about farmer preferences and market dynamics for oilseeds.

3. Tobacco Makes a Comeback:

   • The sharp increase in tobacco sowing signals a potential rebound in demand and pricing for the commodity.

4. Weather Watch:

   • Ongoing western disturbances could temporarily disrupt Rabi activities, especially in northern and western India.

   • Heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu and adjoining regions may impact late sowing and crop transplantation activities.

Adapting to a Changing Climate

India's agricultural landscape is undergoing significant shifts due to changing weather patterns and evolving market demands. The delayed withdrawal of the northeast monsoon highlights the need for adaptive strategies in crop planning and irrigation management.

As Rabi sowing progresses, the focus remains on pulses, paddy, and tobacco as key contributors to the season’s growth. Adequate reservoir levels and favorable weather conditions are likely to support strong yields, but farmers and policymakers must stay vigilant about potential disruptions from weather anomalies.

This dynamic season presents opportunities and challenges for stakeholders across the agricultural value chain, from farmers to commodity traders. Staying informed and proactive will be essential to navigating the complexities of the months ahead.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are based on the report by Geojit Financial Services and are for informational purposes only. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.